As we near the end of the regular season, it’s about that time where the bid picture is a little clearer We’ve gotten to the point where we know who’s pretty much secured a bid and we’re just going to be arguing about the delegation of a few more strength bids. Lets break it down region by region.
Metro East, The First Shall be last and the….
One bid.
North Central – 4 Bids Secured
With the most recent results, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Carleton, and Iowa should have done enough by now to be sitting comfortably. The top three are definitely in after Minnesota’s performance this last weekend at Centex. There’s also not many more opportunities for movement besides Wisconsin’s Someday tournament.
Will get 5 if…
The North Central can get five bids if Luther goes to one more tournament and dominates the majority of competition. Luther started off the season with terrible losses at Free State Classic. They were without super star Eric Johnson who clearly made a gigantic difference at Centex as they scored wins over Colorado, Michigan State, Washington, Illinois and California. That shouldn’t be enough to get them into the top 20, but it should be enough to get them close in the next set of rankings.
They will get 3 if…
If Iowa has any more tournaments to play and absolutely craps themselves then we’ll see them have a remote possibility of moving out of the top 20. They’ve played a lot of games, so while the weighting will be for the more current results, it’s still going to take a lot to move them.
Prediction 4, but I really really want to say 5
The South East – 1 Secured
The Southeast may shape up to be the most competitive region with one bid on the line. UCF is holding strong right now at that spot, and will likely stay within the top 20. Georgia and Florida are looming close with Georgia Tech waving from the back.
They will get 2 bids if…
If Florida or Georgia comes out and reaches the semi finals of Easterns, we will likely see the Southeast get another bid. Even if they don’t reach that point, crushing in the consolation rounds would do the trick. Also, UCF has to hold relatively strong.
They will get 3 bids if…
Both Florida and Georgia crush at Easterns and meet in the finals.
They will get 4 bids if…
Georgia Tech 606’s everyone at Terminus by doubling everyone else score. They don’t have much room, so domination is the only option. They would likely need some help to get in from other teams leaving.
Prediction 2
Atlantic Coast – 1 Bid Secured
UNC- Wilmington and UNC are in the top 20 right now, so they have two bids, but those margins are so tenuous that results are going to matter.
They will get 2 if…
If they both come out with winning records at Easterns with no major losses, both teams should remain in the top 20, albeit BARELY. None the less, that’s what’s required.
Prediction 1
South Central – 2 Bids Secured
Colorado and Texas have done a good job of asserting themselves in the top 20. It looks like there could be some potential challenges from the lower ranks in Kansas or Texas A&M at Regionals, but with not enough season left, there are no other teams available. This region is getting two bids.
Northwest – 2 Bids Secured
Oregon and Washington have done a good of job of results that both should be in the top 20. Washington is on the edge, but the team to watch out for is Whitman. There are no tournaments left at the current time, so everything is going to be based on other teams.
They will get 3 if…
Whitman’s results are good enough, but after a terrible Centex, it looks like they will be right on the edge with plenty of other teams able to move up.
They will get one if…
Enough teams do really well, forcing Washington outside of the 20. It’s a slim chance though.
Prediction 2
The Southwest – 1 Bid Secured
With California safely hovering around the top 10, it looks like they are in it for sure. The other team in the top 20 is Stanford, and they have a very good shot at getting a second bid, but it’s still in question.
They will get 2 if…
Stanford doesn’t have any horrible losses at Easterns and comes out a little above .500. They are high enough up that it’s not likely for too many teams to leapfrog them.
Prediction 2
The Ohio Valley – 1 Bid Secure
This might be the region most in flux with Pittsburgh, Ohio and Penn State in the top 10. Right now they are sitting pretty at 3 bids, but Easterns is looming and if seeding is any indication, it’s not looking good.
They will get 2 if…
If Ohio or Penn State has a solid Easterns, going .500 or a above, they will have two bids. The problem here is that they both have Chicago Invite the following weekend. So if they do well at both, they’re in. If they do poor at one and great in the other (likely to be poor at Easterns and great at Chicago Invite) they’ll be on the fence.
They will get 3 if…
Both Ohio and Penn State go .500 or above at Easterns and they don’t melt down at Chicago Invite.
They will get 4 if…
Ohio State just pulled a 2011 Tufts and completely dominated College Southern’s this past weekend. They are going to move up in this next ranking towards the top 20, and they have Terminus left on the schedule. If they dominate Terminus, they will get into the top 20.
Prediction: 2 Bids
I can definitely see Ohio saving face at Easterns, but it’s going to be tough for Penn State to do well. They can recover at Chicago Invite, so three is very much possible.
New England – 1 Bid Secured
Tufts and Dartmouth are currently in the top 20, and Tufts isn’t going anywhere. Dartmouth is going to be on the bubble after a poor showing at Centex and will have to perform at Easterns and/or New England Open.
They will get 2 if…
If Dartmouth can hold at .500 for Easterns and clean up at New England open, they will most likely do enough to get in.
Prediction: 2 Bids
The Great Lakes – One Bid Secure
Right now Michigan is the auto bid for the Great Lakes, ranked #19. However, Michigan State had some great wins at Centex that could put them over Michigan into the top 20.
They will get 2 if…
Michigan performs well at Easterns and both squads do well at Chicago Invite. If either of them have a poor Chicago Invite, they’re going to be dangerously close. Both teams on the edge, this is going to be an exciting day of watching twitter as we see Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State try to all get into the top 20.
They will get 3 if…
Illinois goes to another tournament and does very well. Edit: They are going to Easterns. A dominant performance at Easterns can put them into the show.
Prediction 2
Overall predicted breakdown –
ME: 1
NC: 4
NW: 2
SW: 2
AC: 1
SE: 2
GL: 2
OV:2
NE: 2
SC: 2
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