Centex 2013: Open Preview

This preview and the 2013 Skyd College Tour are brought to you by Spin Ultimate.

Barbecue and a showcase game at the fields. 80 degree weather and winds at 10-20 miles per hour. Austin, Texas. Yup, it must be Centex!

As another SXSW trickles out of town, the 2013 edition of Centex is shaping up to be an extremely competitive one, as four teams hope to solidify their place in the USAU Top-20, while another three teams are within striking distance of a strength bid. Arizona, winner of Santa Barbara Invite and Presidents Day, headlines the field, while home team and Florida Winter Classic runner-up Texas takes the second seed. A resurgent Harvard squad and a feisty Texas A&M team round out the top seeds, but Eastern Michigan and Georgia Tech lurk just below, ready to capture what would be an upset in seed only.

This year’s Centex format is easier on the body and mind than those in years past, as each team will play four games on Saturday and three on Sunday, barring any late-round consolation forfeits. Gone are the days of the 24-team battles, playing five games in a row in the brutal heat on Saturday, before completing your three-game bracket play on Sunday morning. And for most of these teams, this is a good thing.

Many teams at Centex 2013 are capable of playing very high level ultimate with their top 10 players, but on the fourth game of the weekend, the most important for 8 of the teams hoping to make it into quarterfinals, only the deepest or best-conditioned teams will be able to grind out a victory and a place in the championship bracket. And those are the qualities required to make a deep Regionals run, which is something that all of these teams will be trying to do when the Series rolls around. Of the 16-team field, only Texas, Georgia Tech, and California played at the College Championships last year, but at least half of the teams at Centex this year have a legitimate shot at making it to Madison this year. This grueling Centex will be great preparation for all 16 teams.

One of the biggest storylines of the tournament actually revolves around another tournament – the Dream Cup, in Fuji, Japan. College stars and Doublewide teammates Will Driscoll (Texas) and Dalton Smith (Texas A&M) will be missing Centex to play with a USA All-Star team at the Dream Cup, while their teams seek to earn three bids for the South Central region. Smith leaves A&M in the more than capable hands of Matt Bennett, A&M’s electrifying handler, but his absence will be a big blow. TUFF will miss Driscoll as well, but they have a history of being a deeper team, and Virginia does not pose nearly as much of a threat in pool play as Eastern Michigan does to Dozen.

Beyond that, Arizona will be looking to rebound after a rough Stanford Invite, as will Texas and Texas A&M. Harvard hasn’t played since the Queen City Tune-Up, but they showed defensive tenacity and an ability to grind on offense that fell just short of upsets against Ohio and UNC. Anyone in the top 6 seeds could conceivably make a run at the title, but even lower-ranked teams are sensing weakness at the top and looking to play spoiler. Let’s break it down by pool.

Pool A: Arizona, Kansas, California, Oklahoma

With an abundance of film on Arizona’s early season success, teams have been able to game plan for Arizona’s famous zone. The 3-1-2-1 containment zone still forced turnovers at Stanford Invite, but at a much lower rate than it had at earlier tournaments. The wind should help Arizona here, but teams will take their cue from Tufts and come in prepared to slice and dice the zone. Arizona’s offensive gameplan was bailed out by continual upline handler cuts against UNCW, but their downfield cutters stagnated, and eventually UNCW was able to stop the handler motion and go on a run to take the game. Can Kansas or Cal do the same?

Kansas is 7-1 right now, their only loss coming at the hands of Missouri in the finals at Huck Finn, 2-11. They’re sitting in the #28 spot in the USA Ultimate rankings, and a surprise win over Arizona here could catapult them into the top-20, however unlikely that may be. Cal is still reeling from a disastrous Stanford Open, going 1-5, but they have the experience, if not the players, to do well at a difficult tournament like Centex. This is a solid but unspectacular Cal team, but they should be able to knock off Kansas and earn an easier prequarter matchup.

Prediction: Arizona, California, Kansas, Oklahoma