Reader Tom Murray just sent us the following. I thought some of his fellow stat heads would enjoy taking a look.
I’ve been working on a fully Bayesian approach to modeling Ultimate frisbee scores. I’ve run a version of my Bayesian model on all the sanctioned games from the current season (including the post-season). There is no time-decay at this point in the game, so each game is given equal weight. I’d like to thank Sam Tucker for helping me access all this awesome data. As for the pool finish probabilities, using the results from my model, I’ve simulated the results of each pool 5,000 times and these are the proportions of each teams pool placement across those 5,000 iterations.
Pool A Pool Finish Probabilities Teams 1 2 3 4 5 Oregon 52.56 30.88 9.50 4.26 2.80 Colorado 23.90 34.50 22.20 10.42 8.98 Dartmouth 10.32 11.90 23.66 31.76 22.36 Georgia 10.06 16.60 32.10 20.04 21.20 Washington 3.16 6.12 12.54 33.52 44.66 Pool B Pool Finish Probabilities Teams 1 2 3 4 5 Wisconsin 34.26 22.36 23.84 17.50 2.04 Carleton College 18.72 21.06 30.84 23.64 5.74 Harvard 26.46 30.92 19.60 17.24 5.78 Florida State 20.30 24.98 23.38 25.24 6.10 Cornell 0.26 0.68 2.34 16.38 80.34 Pool C Pool Finish Probabilities Teams 1 2 3 4 5 North Carolina 27.74 19.90 22.36 21.38 8.62 Central Florida 36.60 28.52 15.86 12.56 6.46 Ohio 21.44 22.56 26.56 17.16 12.28 California-Davis 4.28 5.30 14.26 28.08 48.08 Luther 9.94 23.72 20.96 20.82 24.56 Pool D Pool Finish Probabilities Teams 1 2 3 4 5 Pittsburgh 28.22 23.80 27.32 14.52 6.14 Texas 39.92 33.06 13.68 7.98 5.36 North Carolina-Wmgtn 11.12 13.56 22.70 31.32 21.30 Arizona 18.28 25.20 27.32 17.42 11.78 Illinois 2.46 4.38 8.98 28.76 55.42
Look for Central Florida taking the top seed over North Carolina, and Texas over Pittsburgh. Arizona and Ohio are the wildcards, they could go anywhere. Cornell is most certain to finish 5th, whereas Oregon is a lock for the 1 seed in Pool A. Harvard shouldn’t be overlooked in pool B.
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